Fourth National Climate Assessment: Key Scientific Advances and Extreme Events

The National Climate Assessment

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a report to Congress and the President no less than every four years that “1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program . . .; 2) analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and 3) analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”1

The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) fulfills that mandate in two volumes. The following is excerpted from Volume II, released November 23, 2018, and catalogues key scientific advancements and natural disasters since the last National Climate Assessment was released in 2014.

Key Scientific Advances

Detection and Attribution: Significant advances have been made in the attribution of the human influence for individual climate and weather extreme events (see CSSR, Chs. 3, 6, 7, and 8).

Extreme Events and Atmospheric Circulation: How climate change may affect specific types of extreme events in the United States and the extent to which atmospheric circulation in the midlatitudes is changing or is projected to change, possibly in ways not captured by current climate models, are important areas of research where scientific understanding has advanced (see CSSR, Chs. 5, 6, 7, and 9).

Localized Information: As computing resources have grown, projections of future climate from global models are now being conducted at finer scales (with resolution on the order of 15 miles), providing more realistic characterization of intense weather systems, including hurricanes. For the first time in the NCA process, sea level rise projections incorporate geographic variation based on factors such as local land subsidence, ocean currents, and changes in Earth’s gravitational field (see CSSR, Chs. 9 and 12).

Ocean and Coastal Waters: Ocean acidification, warming, and oxygen loss are all increasing, and scientific understanding of the severity of their impacts is growing. Both oxygen loss and acidification may be magnified in some U.S. coastal waters relative to the global average, raising the risk of serious ecological and economic consequences (see CSSR, Chs. 2 and 13).

Rapid Changes for Ice on Earth: New observations from many different sources confirm that ice loss across the globe is continuing and, in many cases, accelerating. Since NCA3, Antarctica and Greenland have continued to lose ice mass, with mounting evidence that mass loss is accelerating. Observations continue to show declines in the volume of mountain glaciers around the world. Annual September minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean has decreased at a rate of 11%–16% per decade since the early 1980s, with accelerating ice loss since 2000. The annual sea ice extent minimum for 2016 was the second lowest on record; the sea ice minimums in 2014 and 2015 were also among the lowest on record (see CSSR, Chs. 1, 11, and 12).

Potential Surprises: Both large-scale shifts in the climate system (sometimes called “tipping points”) and compound extremes have the potential to generate outcomes that are difficult to anticipate and may have high consequences. The more the climate changes, the greater the potential for these surprises (see CSSR, Ch. 15).

Extreme Events

Climate change is altering the characteristics of many extreme weather and climate-related events. Some extreme events have already become more frequent, intense, widespread, or of longer duration, and many are expected to continue to increase or worsen, presenting substantial challenges for built, agricultural, and natural systems. Some storm types such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms are also exhibiting changes that have been linked to climate change, although the current state of the science does not yet permit detailed understanding (see CSSR, Executive Summary). Individual extreme weather and climate related events—even those that have not been clearly attributed to climate change by scientific analyses—reveal risks to society and vulnerabilities that mirror those we expect in a warmer world. Non-climate stressors (such as land-use changes and shifting demographics) can also amplify the damages associated with extreme events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that the United States has experienced 44 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters since 2015 (through April 6, 2018), incurring costs of nearly $400 billion (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).

Hurricanes: The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season alone is estimated to have caused more than $250 billion in damages and over 250 deaths throughout the U.S. Caribbean, Southeast, and Southern Great Plains. More than 30 inches of rain fell during Hurricane Harvey, affecting 6.9 million people. Hurricane Maria’s high winds caused widespread devastation to Puerto Rico’s transportation, agriculture, communication, and energy infrastructure. Extreme rainfall of up to 37 inches caused widespread flooding and mudslides across the island. The interruption to commerce and standard living conditions will be sustained for a long period while much of Puerto Rico’s infrastructure is rebuilt. Hurricane Irma destroyed 25% of buildings in the Florida Keys.

Floods: In August 2016, a historic flood resulting from 20 to 30 inches of rainfall over several days devastated a large area of southern Louisiana, causing over $10 billion in damages and 13 deaths. More than 30,000 people were rescued from floodwaters that damaged or destroyed more than 50,000 homes, 100,000 vehicles, and 20,000 businesses. In June 2016, torrential rainfall caused destructive flooding throughout many West Virginia towns, damaging thousands of homes and businesses and causing considerable loss of life. More than 1,500 roads and bridges were damaged or destroyed. The 2015–2016 El Niño poured 11 days of record-setting rainfall on Hawai‘i, causing severe urban flooding.

Drought: In 2015, drought conditions caused about $5 billion in damages across the Southwest and Northwest, as well as parts of the Northern Great Plains. California experienced the most severe drought conditions. Hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland remained fallow, and excess groundwater pumping was required to irrigate existing agricultural interests. Two years later, in 2017, extreme drought caused $2.5 billion in agricultural damages across the Northern Great Plains. Field crops, including wheat, were severely damaged, and the lack of feed for cattle forced ranchers to sell off livestock.

Wildfires: During the summer of 2015, over 10.1 million acres—an area larger than the entire state of Maryland—burned across the United States, surpassing 2006 for the highest annual total of U.S. acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. These wildfire conditions were exacerbated by the preceding drought conditions in several states. The most extensive wildfires occurred in Alaska, where 5 million acres burned within the state. In Montana, wildfires burned in excess of 1 million acres. The costliest wildfires occurred in California, where more than 2,500 structures were destroyed by the Valley and Butte Fires; insured losses alone exceeded $1 billion. In October 2017, a historic firestorm damaged or destroyed more than 15,000 homes, businesses, and other structures across California. The Tubbs, Atlas, Nuns, and Redwood Valley Fires caused a total of 44 deaths, and their combined destruction represents the costliest wildfire event on record.

Tornadoes: In March 2017, a severe tornado outbreak caused damage across much of the Midwest and into the Northeast. Nearly 1 million customers lost power in Michigan alone due to sustained high winds, which affected several states from Illinois to New York.

Heat Waves: Honolulu experienced 24 days of record-setting heat during the 2015–2016 El Niño event. As a result, the local energy utility issued emergency public service announcements to curtail escalating air conditioning use that threatened the electrical grid.

References:

1. Global Change Research Act of 1990. Pub. L. No. 101- 606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104, November 16, 1990. http:// www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-104/pdf/ STATUTE-104-Pg3096.pdf

The entire Fourth National Climate Assessment report can be found here.